Over an official lunch in late February kabelsl?et a top South Korean diplomat confidently told the American Ambassador, Kathleen Stephens, the decrease would be "two to three years" after the death of Kim Jong-il, the country's ailing leader, MS. Stephens later Washington. A new, younger generation of Chinese leaders predicted "would be comfortable with a reunited Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the United States in a benign alliance," a diplomat, Chun Yung-woo.
But if Seoul were intended to control the entire Korean peninsula for the first time since the end of the second world war, China — the powerful allies, that keep the North Live food and fuel — should be reassuring. South Korea already plans to assure the Chinese companies that they would have ample commercial opportunities in mineral-rich northern part of the peninsula.
As for the United States, said the cable, "China would clearly not welcome any American military presence in the North of the DMZ," heavily mined the demarcation line now divides the two Korea 's.
This trove cables ends in February, just before the North Korea began a series of military actions, which have cast some of Asia's most prosperous countries in crisis. a month after the lunch, the North is believed to have launched a torpedo attack on Cheonan, a South Korean warship, which killed 46 sailors.
Three weeks ago revealed the existence of a uranium enrichment plant, potentially give it a new pathway to make nuclear bomb material.And last week the shelled a South Island, killed two civilians and two Marines and injured many more.
None of that was predicted in dozens of State Department cables on North Korea produced by WikiLeaks, and in fact, the people's Republic of China'S closest allies, has often been amazing incorrectly, the cables Show. But the documents help explain why some South Korean and US officials suspect that the military outbreaks can be the past snarls of a dying dictatorship.
They also show to talk about the Northern collapse can be docked more in hope than in any real strategy: similar predictions were made in 1994, when the country's founder, Kim Il-sung, suddenly died, leaving his son to run the most isolated country in Asia and an expert in Chinese have been warned, according to an American diplomat said that Washington would be deceiving themselves again if it tr?de that "North Korea would implode after Kim Jong-Il is dead."
Cables on North Korea — some originate from Seoul, some from Beijing, many based on interviews with officials and others with academics, defectors and other experts — are long on a qualified guess and short on facts, illustrates why their topic is known as the "black hole" Asia. because they are Foreign Ministry documents, not intelligence reports, they do not include the most secret u.s. assessments or the u.s. military plans in the case of North Korea guerillakampe or lashes.
They contain loose talk and confidence to the predictions of the end of the dynasty, North Korea has held for the age of 65. These discussions were fueled by a rash of previously released defections of ranking North Korean diplomats, who secretly sought refuge in the South.
But they were also influenced by a remarkable period of turmoil inside of North Korea, including an economic crisis set off by the Government's failed effort to regulate currency and lean intelligence suggests that the Northern military cannot abide the occasion of Mr. Kim son Kim Jong-un, as was recently done a four-star general, despite has no military experience.
The cables reveals that private Chinese, long seen as North Korea's last protectors against the West, occasionally gives Obama administration with colourful assessments of the situation in North Korea. Chinese officials, even laugh sometimes also about frustrations dealing with North Korean paranoia. in April, 2009, just before a North Korean nuclear test, he Yafei, the Chinese Foreign minister, vice versa, told us officials on a lunch, to the country you want direct negotiations with the United States and to make them act as a "child" to get the attention of "adult".
When James b. Steinberg, the Deputy Secretary of State was in september 2009, with one of China's most powerful officials, Dai Bingguo, State councilor for Foreign Affairs, Mr Dai joked that in a recent visit to North Korea he "does not dare to" being too frank with the ailing and mercurial North Korean leader. But the official Chinese reported that although Kim Jong-il, apparently, had suffered a stroke and, of course, had lost weight, he still had a "sharp eye," and kept his reputation among Chinese officials as "quite good drinker."(Mr. Kim seemed assured Mr Dai during a two-hour conversation in Pyongyang, the capital, as his infirmities had forced him to give up alcohol.)
But reliable intelligence on Mr Kim drinking habits, it turns on, does not extend to his nuclear program, as even the Chinese seem to be in the dark.
Andrew w. Lehren contributed reporting from New York.
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